Block Chop...
Bitcoin’s creator focused almost exclusively on scarcity as related to value, and programmed events called halvings to reduce the number of new bitcoins that can be created from mining. Halvings occur around every 4 years, and shrink the number of bitcoins created from mining by half. The latest halving happened last month on April 19, when the mining reward was cut from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. Crypto proponents suggest halvings are correlated with bitcoin prices, causing them to rise. However, because the events happen just once every four years, it only provides a small sample size. Also, there have been just four halvings so far, which is a small number of observations to use when calculating correlation over eleven years.

Diminishing Effect
Bitcoin supporters claim that the increased element of scarcity introduced by the halvings support the value of bitcoin. However, though halvings limit the growth of new bitcoin creation, they do not reduce the number of bitcoins. The number of bitcoins still increases, just at a slower rate. Additionally, the vast majority of all bitcoins that will ever exist have already been created. Around 94% of the 21 million total bitcoins that will be mined have already been generated. Though it will take until 2140, there are just around 1.3 million bitcoin left to be mined out of the 21 million limit. Any price movements resulting from quantity might have been expected to be more pronounced while the number of bitcoins was lower, with prices being influenced less as quantity increases. Also, the effect the halvings have on the amount of new bitcoins created becomes less and less with each halving. Therefore, if the halving events did have an effect on bitcoin prices, the effect may be expected to diminish with each consecutive event.

Inefficient
The concept of market efficiency is a way of describing price movements as being influenced by all available information, with markets only reacting to new information. This means information that is already available will already be figured into valuations. For example, if a company announces it will take a certain action on a certain date, investors will account for the effects of that action before it actually happens. The expectations of investors will be reflected in the market price before the event takes place. The actual occurrence of the event may have little or no effect on the company stock price. Since the effect and timing of all halvings are predetermined, and their occurrence is not new information, bitcoin market participants should have already accounted for any effect the event would have on its value. Efficient markets only react to new information, as what is already known has already been priced in by investors. If the actual occurrence of a halving has an effect on bitcoin prices, it could indicate the market is inefficient.